New Article: “Securing Ocean Benefits for Society in the Face of Climate Change”

Ruckelshaus. M. et al. (2013). Securing Ocean Benefits for Society in the Face of Climate Change. Marine Policy. 40: 154-159.

Abstract: Benefits humans rely on from the ocean – marine ecosystem services – are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures.

Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives – such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes – are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change.

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New Article: “Changing Social Contracts in Climate-Change Adaptation”

Adger, W.N. et al. (2013). Changing Social Contracts in Climate-Change Adaptation. Nature Climate Change. 3: 330-333.

Abstract: Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action.We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected
by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue
that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation.

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New Article: “The Relationship between Personal Experience and Belief in the Reality of Global Warming”

Myers, T.A. et al.(2013). The Relationship between Personal Experience and Belief in the Reality of Global Warming. Nature Climate Change. 3: 343-347.

Abstract: In this paper, we address the chicken-or-egg question posed by two alternative explanations for the relationship between perceived personal experience of global warming and belief certainty that global warming is happening: Do observable climate impacts create opportunities for people to become more certain of the reality of global warming, or does prior belief certainty shape people’s perceptions of impacts through a process of motivated reasoning? We use data from a nationally representative sample of Americans surveyed first in 2008 and again in 2011; these longitudinal data allow us to evaluate the causal relationships between belief certainty and perceived experience, assessing the impact of each on the other over time. Among the full survey sample, we found that both processes occurred: ‘experiential learning’, where perceived personal experience of global warming led to increased belief certainty, and ‘motivated reasoning’, where high belief certainty influenced perceptions of personal experience. We then tested and confirmed the hypothesis that motivated reasoning occurs primarily among people who are already highly engaged in the issue whereas experiential learning occurs primarily among people who are less engaged in the issue, which is particularly important given that approximately 75% of American adults currently have low levels of engagement.

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New Book: ‘Cities at Risk: Living with Perils in the 21st Century’

Joffe, H., Rossetto, T. and Adams, J. (2013). Cities at Risk: Living with Perils in the 21st Century. Springer.

Description: With the major growth of the world’s population over the past century, as well as rapid urbanisation, people increasingly live in crowded cities. This trend is often accompanied by proliferation of poorly built housing, uncontrolled use of land, occupation of unsafe environments and overstretched services.  When a natural hazard strikes such a city many people are vulnerable to loss of life and property.  This book explores what these people think and feel about the threats that they face. How do they live with perils ranging from earthquakes to monsoons, from floods to hurricanes, in the 21^st century?

The authors are drawn from a large range of disciplines: Psychology, Engineering, Geography, Anthropology and Urban Planning. They also reflect on how perils are represented in multiple cultures: the United States, Japan, Turkey, Bangladesh, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. The book therefore not only brings to light the ways that different cultures represent natural hazards but also the different ways in which various disciplines write about living with perils in the 21st century.

The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involved with risk management and risk mitigation.

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New Book: ‘Managing Extreme Climate Change Risks through Insurance’

Botzen, Wouter J.W. (2013). Managing Extreme Climate Change Risks through Insurance. Cambridge University Press.

Description: In recent years, the damage caused by natural disasters has increased worldwide; this trend will only continue with the impact of climate change. Despite this, the role for the most common mechanism for managing risk – insurance – has received little attention. This book considers the contribution that insurance arrangements can make to society’s management of the risks of natural hazards in a changing climate. It also looks at the potential impacts of climate change on the insurance sector, and insurers’ responses to climate change. The author combines theory with evidence from the rich experiences of the Netherlands together with examples from around the world. He recognises the role of the individual in preparing for disasters, as well as the difficulties individuals have in understanding and dealing with infrequent risks. Written in plain language, this book will appeal to researchers and policy-makers alike.

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New Article: ‘Multi-Level Governance: Opportunities and Barriers in Moving to a Low-Carbon Scotland’

Sugden, D. et al. (2013). Multi-Level Governance: Opportunities and Barriers in Moving to a Low-Carbon Scotland. Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. 1-12

Abstract: In view of the challenge posed by climate change and the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, The Royal Society of Edinburgh Inquiry(2011) examined the barriers making it difficult for Scotland to change to a low-carbon society. The single most important finding is that, whilst widely desired, change is held back by the lack of coherence and integration of policy at different levels of governance. There is activity at the level of the EU, UK Government, Scottish Government, local authorities, local communities, households and civil society, but there is often a disconnection between policies at different levels. This impedes progress and also leads to mistrust among the general public. This paper brings together the background to ten primary recommendations featured in the Inquiry addressing the principal barriers. Above all, it is important to integrate the activities within city regions and to exploit opportunities in local communities. Reflecting on the Inquiry findings, we stress the economic, social and environmental opportunities to be gained from a low-carbon society and outline the step changes that need to take place within governance, city regions and local authorities and civil society.

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New Article: ‘Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: From Probability to Contingency’

Oels, A. (2013). Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: From Probability to Contingency. Geoforum. 45: 17-29.

Abstract: In this paper, I use Foucault’s concept of governmentality to investigate changes in the risk management of climate change. In an exploratory analysis of primary and secondary sources, I demonstrate that the risk construction of climate change has shifted significantly from 1988 to 2010. Risk construction has broadened, and related policies now include mitigation, adaptation and disaster preparedness. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the meaning of ‘security’ and the related modes of risk management have shifted over time. I show that traditional science-based risk management has been dominant in mitigation and adaptation policy. The articulation of climate change as a security issue since 2003 indicates risk management through contingency. I argue that what the Copenhagen School has studied as the ‘failed securitization’ of climate change and a lack of extraordinary measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are better understood as the ‘climatization’ of security. The governmental rationale since 2007 has been to prepare for and manage the ‘inevitable’ primary and secondary impacts of unmitigated climate change.

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New Article: ‘Translating disaster resilience into spatial planning practice in South Africa: Challenges and champions’

Van Niekerk, W. (2013). Translating disaster resilience into spatial planning practice in South Africa: Challenges and champions.  Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies. 5 (1): 1-6.

Abstract: It is highly likely that hazards and extreme climatic events will occur more frequently in the future and will become more severe – increasing the vulnerability and risk of millions of poor urbanites in developing countries. Disaster resilience aims to reduce disaster losses by equipping cities to withstand, absorb, adapt to or recover from external shocks. This paper questions whether disaster resilience is likely to be taken up in spatial planning practices in South Africa, given its immediate developmental priorities and challenges. In South Africa, issues of development take precedence over issues of sustainability, environmental management and disaster reduction. This is illustrated by the priority given to ‘servicing’ settlements compared to the opportunities offered by ‘transforming’ spaces through post-apartheid spatial planning. The City of Durban’s quest in adapting to climate change demonstrates hypothetically that if disaster resilience were to be presented as an issue distinct from what urban planners are already doing, then planners would see it as insignificant as compared to addressing the many developmental backlogs and challenges. If, however, it is regarded as a means to secure a city’s development path whilst simultaneously addressing sustainability, then disaster resilience is more likely to be translated into spatial planning practices in South Africa.

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Commentary: On Resilience, Adaptation and Adjustability

O’Riordan, T. (2013). Commentary: On Resilience, Adaptation and Adjustability. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. 55 (2): 30-31

The year 2012 was the second wettest on record for the British Isles, and the wettest ever for England. Flooding took place where no flooding had ever occurred before: More than 8,000 properties experienced flood damage with more than 3.6 million properties known to be at risk. Yet the beginning of the year experienced the driest spring also ever recorded. In late March there were official drought orders and hosepipe (watering) bans throughout southern and eastern England.  What this experience suggests is that “the weather” will never be “normal”and that “climate change” is a reality, even if not guaranteed to be human induced as current climate science predicts. It also indicates that the institutions of flood management in the United Kingdom will have to adapt by adjustments that are tolerable for their mandates and their lobbyists.

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New Article: ‘Rational Climate Mitigation Goals’

Björnberg, K. E. (2013). Rational Climate Mitigation Goals. Energy Policy. 56: 285-292

Abstract: The overall goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In policy practice, this goal is mainly operationalized through three types of mitigation targets: emission, atmospheric concentration and temperature targets. The typical function of climate mitigation goals is to regulate action towards goal achievement. This is done in several ways. Mitigation goals help the structuring of the greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement action, over time and between agents; they constitute a standard against which GHG abatement can be assessed and evaluated; they motivate climate conscious behavior; and discourage defection from cooperative abatement regimes. Although the three targets clearly relate to one another, there could be differences in how well they fulfill these functions. In this article, the effectiveness of emission, concentration and temperature targets in guiding and motivating action towards the UNFCCC’s overall aim is analyzed using a framework for rational goal evaluation developed by Edvardsson and Hansson (2005) as an analytical tool. It is argued that to regulate action effectively, mitigation goals should ideally satisfy four criteria: precision, evaluability, attainability and motivity. Only then can the target fulfill its typical function, i.e., to guide and motivate action in a way that facilitates goal achievement.

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