New Book: ‘Managing Extreme Climate Change Risks through Insurance’

Botzen, Wouter J.W. (2013). Managing Extreme Climate Change Risks through Insurance. Cambridge University Press.

Description: In recent years, the damage caused by natural disasters has increased worldwide; this trend will only continue with the impact of climate change. Despite this, the role for the most common mechanism for managing risk – insurance – has received little attention. This book considers the contribution that insurance arrangements can make to society’s management of the risks of natural hazards in a changing climate. It also looks at the potential impacts of climate change on the insurance sector, and insurers’ responses to climate change. The author combines theory with evidence from the rich experiences of the Netherlands together with examples from around the world. He recognises the role of the individual in preparing for disasters, as well as the difficulties individuals have in understanding and dealing with infrequent risks. Written in plain language, this book will appeal to researchers and policy-makers alike.

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New Article: ‘Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: From Probability to Contingency’

Oels, A. (2013). Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: From Probability to Contingency. Geoforum. 45: 17-29.

Abstract: In this paper, I use Foucault’s concept of governmentality to investigate changes in the risk management of climate change. In an exploratory analysis of primary and secondary sources, I demonstrate that the risk construction of climate change has shifted significantly from 1988 to 2010. Risk construction has broadened, and related policies now include mitigation, adaptation and disaster preparedness. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the meaning of ‘security’ and the related modes of risk management have shifted over time. I show that traditional science-based risk management has been dominant in mitigation and adaptation policy. The articulation of climate change as a security issue since 2003 indicates risk management through contingency. I argue that what the Copenhagen School has studied as the ‘failed securitization’ of climate change and a lack of extraordinary measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are better understood as the ‘climatization’ of security. The governmental rationale since 2007 has been to prepare for and manage the ‘inevitable’ primary and secondary impacts of unmitigated climate change.

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New Article: ‘Translating disaster resilience into spatial planning practice in South Africa: Challenges and champions’

Van Niekerk, W. (2013). Translating disaster resilience into spatial planning practice in South Africa: Challenges and champions.  Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies. 5 (1): 1-6.

Abstract: It is highly likely that hazards and extreme climatic events will occur more frequently in the future and will become more severe – increasing the vulnerability and risk of millions of poor urbanites in developing countries. Disaster resilience aims to reduce disaster losses by equipping cities to withstand, absorb, adapt to or recover from external shocks. This paper questions whether disaster resilience is likely to be taken up in spatial planning practices in South Africa, given its immediate developmental priorities and challenges. In South Africa, issues of development take precedence over issues of sustainability, environmental management and disaster reduction. This is illustrated by the priority given to ‘servicing’ settlements compared to the opportunities offered by ‘transforming’ spaces through post-apartheid spatial planning. The City of Durban’s quest in adapting to climate change demonstrates hypothetically that if disaster resilience were to be presented as an issue distinct from what urban planners are already doing, then planners would see it as insignificant as compared to addressing the many developmental backlogs and challenges. If, however, it is regarded as a means to secure a city’s development path whilst simultaneously addressing sustainability, then disaster resilience is more likely to be translated into spatial planning practices in South Africa.

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Commentary: On Resilience, Adaptation and Adjustability

O’Riordan, T. (2013). Commentary: On Resilience, Adaptation and Adjustability. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. 55 (2): 30-31

The year 2012 was the second wettest on record for the British Isles, and the wettest ever for England. Flooding took place where no flooding had ever occurred before: More than 8,000 properties experienced flood damage with more than 3.6 million properties known to be at risk. Yet the beginning of the year experienced the driest spring also ever recorded. In late March there were official drought orders and hosepipe (watering) bans throughout southern and eastern England.  What this experience suggests is that “the weather” will never be “normal”and that “climate change” is a reality, even if not guaranteed to be human induced as current climate science predicts. It also indicates that the institutions of flood management in the United Kingdom will have to adapt by adjustments that are tolerable for their mandates and their lobbyists.

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New Article: ‘Rational Climate Mitigation Goals’

Björnberg, K. E. (2013). Rational Climate Mitigation Goals. Energy Policy. 56: 285-292

Abstract: The overall goal of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. In policy practice, this goal is mainly operationalized through three types of mitigation targets: emission, atmospheric concentration and temperature targets. The typical function of climate mitigation goals is to regulate action towards goal achievement. This is done in several ways. Mitigation goals help the structuring of the greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement action, over time and between agents; they constitute a standard against which GHG abatement can be assessed and evaluated; they motivate climate conscious behavior; and discourage defection from cooperative abatement regimes. Although the three targets clearly relate to one another, there could be differences in how well they fulfill these functions. In this article, the effectiveness of emission, concentration and temperature targets in guiding and motivating action towards the UNFCCC’s overall aim is analyzed using a framework for rational goal evaluation developed by Edvardsson and Hansson (2005) as an analytical tool. It is argued that to regulate action effectively, mitigation goals should ideally satisfy four criteria: precision, evaluability, attainability and motivity. Only then can the target fulfill its typical function, i.e., to guide and motivate action in a way that facilitates goal achievement.

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New Book: ‘The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters’

Guha-Sapir, D. & Santos, I. (2013). The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters. Oxford University Press

Book Description: Since the turn of the millennium, more than one million people have been killed and 2.3 billion others have been directly affected by natural disasters around the world. In cases like the 2010 Haiti earthquake or the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, these disasters have time and time again wrecked large populations and national infrastructures. While recognizing that improved rescue, evacuation, and disease control are crucial to reducing the effects of natural disasters, in the final analysis, poverty remains the main risk factor determining the long-term impact of natural hazards. Furthermore, natural disasters have themselves a tremendous impact on the poorest of the poor, who are often ill-prepared to deal with natural hazards and for whom a hurricane, an earthquake, or a drought can mean a permanent submersion in poverty.

The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters focuses on these concerns for poverty and vulnerability. Written by a collection of esteemed scholars in disaster management and sustainable development, the report provides an overview of the general trends in natural disasters and their effects by focusing on a critical analysis of different methodologies used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters. Economic Impacts presents six national case studies (Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Nicaragua, Japan and the Netherlands) and shows how household surveys and country-level macroeconomic data can analyze and quantify the economic impact of disasters. The researchers within Economic Impacts have created path-breaking work and have opened new avenues for thinking and debate to push forward the frontiers of knowledge on economics of natural disasters.

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Book Chapter: ‘Hazards, Risk, and Vulnerability’

Dewan, A.M. (2013). Hazards, Risk, and Vulnerability in A.M. Dewan (ed). Floods in a Megacity: Geospatial Techniques in Assessing Hazards, Risk and Vulnerability. Springer

Abstract: Natural hazard terminologies with existing models of vulnerability, hazard, and risk are presented in this chapter. A conceptual framework has been developed based on hazard literature. The basic premise of the framework is based on Cutter’s place of hazard theory with inputs from recent literature. In the framework, hazard is viewed as a threat that has the potential to overwhelm people, property, and the environment. It is a pre-existing condition that can turn into a catastrophe depending on the influence of exogenous and endogenous factors. Exposure to hazard is treated as given and is an implicit element. The vulnerability element is perceived as the interactive effects of the social and physical aspects of a system (e.g., urban) regarding the causal process of hazards. Contrary to some conceptualizations, the framework views that the total vulnerability of a community depends on physical, social, and existing coping capacity attributes, and therefore, the calculation of the total vulnerability should consider these elements simultaneously. Risk is conceptualized as the product of hazard and vulnerability. To minimize the effects of disasters, it is imperative to take appropriate measures to reduce vulnerability rather than risk.

The utilization of geospatial techniques in flood risk management is separated into three categories: flood mapping, damage assessment, and evaluation of flood risk and vulnerability. Biophysical and socioeconomic data that are sourced from remote sensing, census geography, and other spatial databases are employed to evaluate flood-related risk in diverse environments. A variety of methods—comprising inductive, deductive, and multi-criteria evaluation—are used to determine flood vulnerability and risk as evidenced by the literature survey. It reveals that geospatial techniques can be utilized effectively in the entire spectrum of the disaster cycle, which can save lives and property from natural hazards such as flood, as well as support informed decision making during emergencies.

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New Article: ‘Economics of Climate Change Adaptation at the Local Scale under Conditions of Uncertainty and Resource Constraints: the Case of Durban, South Africa’

Cartwright, A., Blignaut, J., de Wit, M., Goldberg, K., Mander, M., O’Donoghue, S., & Roberts, D. (2013). Economics of Climate Change Adaptation at the Local Scale under Conditions of Uncertainty and Resource Constraints: the Case of Durban, South Africa. Environment and Urbanization. DOI: 10.1177/0956247813477814

Abstract: This paper describes the design and application of a benefit-cost model to the city of Durban’s (South Africa) climate change adaptation options. The approach addresses the inability to compile an accurate damage-cost function for economic prioritizations at the local level. It proposes that uncertainty over climate impacts and the efficacy of adaptation responses, in conjunction with the lack of economic data, high levels of economic informality and inequality make it difficult to link adaptation efforts to positive GDP impact in Durban. Instead, the research based its calculations of “benefits” on the number of people impacted and the extent of the welfare benefits imparted by the respective adaptation efforts. It also took into account the uncertainty over future events, capacity constraints, priorities of decision makers and the risk of maladaptation. The results were reported as benefit-cost ratios for 16 clusters of interventions (many of which were primarily the responsibility of one municipal department or agency) in each of four future scenarios (defined by minor or major climate change and weak or strong socio-institutional capacity). The paper presents and discusses the benefit-cost ratios and total benefits for each of the intervention clusters in each of the future scenarios. It emphasizes how these are influenced by choices of time frames. It also highlights how the most efficient interventions across all futures and time frames tend to be socio-institutional − for instance the creation of a cross-sectoral disaster management forum, sea level rise preparedness and early warning system, and creating climate change adaptation capacity within the water services unit. Ecosystem-based adaptation measures had moderate benefit-cost ratios, probably because in Durban the land that needs to be purchased for this is relatively expensive. Infrastructure-based clusters generally had the lowest benefit-cost ratios.

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New Article: ‘Pathways of Integrated Coastal Management from National Policy to Local Implementation: Enabling Climate Change Adaptation’

Celliers, L. et al. (2013). ’Pathways of Integrated Coastal Management from National Policy to Local Implementation: Enabling Climate Change Adaptation. Marine Policy. 39: 72 – 86

Abstract: Integrated coastal management (ICM) has been developing concomitantly with the realisation of the severity of the potential impacts of climate change. The discourse on climate change and adaptation has also included the awareness that adaptation must take place at all levels of government, particularly local government. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the physical, social, environmental and economic environments of coastal cities and towns, and in particular on the poor and vulnerable communities within these cities and towns. The crucial role that local government can play in climate protection and building cities’ and communities’ resilience to climate change is widely recognised at the global level. This paper explores the legal and policy connexion between ICM, local government and climate change in Mozambique and South Africa, two developing countries in Africa. The state of institutionalisation of coastal management at national through to local government is also examined. The authors contend that the state, character and maturity of the ICM policy domain can create an enabling environment within which local government agencies can prepare for future impacts of climate change. Conversely it can also limit, delay and hinder climate change adaptation. The paper concludes with the identification of some key success factors for assessing the effectiveness of the existing policy and legal frameworks to respond to the challenges of climate change. It also identifies some key principles to be included in future legislative reform to promote ICM, cooperative governance and greater preparedness for climate change at local government level.

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New Report: ‘Recovery from Disaster: Resilience, Adaptability and Perceptions of Climate Change’

Boon, H.J., Millar, J., Lake, D., Cottrell, A., & King, D. (2012). Recovery from Disaster: Resilience, Adaptability and Perceptions of Climate Change. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. Gold Coast.

Abstract: Focused on four disaster-impacted communities: Beechworth and Bendigo (VIC) and Ingham and Innisfail (QLD) this report makes recommendations for emergency management and local government policies.

Disasters disrupt multiple levels of socio-cultural systems in which lives are embedded. The study used Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory to analyse individual and, by proxy, community resilience. The theory provided a comprehensive framework to evaluate the interacting factors that support resilience across different disaster sites and communities. While Bronfenbrenner’s theory has been used extensively, the authors believe that this is the first time it has been used to model disaster resilience.

The project aimed to:
1) Identify private and public sector groups’ beliefs, behaviours and policies that have supported community resilience to a disaster event;
2) Examine the commonalities of the experience for the four types of disaster and the possible impact of their respective intensities, duration and perceived frequency, as well as how well communities cope with the unexpected;
3) Assess the degree of community resilience in each of four study sites in disaster affected areas; and
4) Construct a model with findings to help implement appropriate and equitable emergency management policies and mitigation strategies for climate change events.

A key hypothesis underpinning the research was that individuals remaining in the disaster impacted communities were likely to be resilient to disaster.

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